That’s not to say Android is completely gone from the show — it isn’t — but the mood last year was that Microsoft had missed the boat with Windows 8. While Redmond toiled, its erstwhile partners were clambering aboard the SS Android to set sail for the land of Milk and Tablets.
That was before the boat mostly sank. Android as a whole claimed nearly half the tablet market in 2011, but the only device to break away from the pack and make a name for itself was Amazon’s Kindle Fire — a tablet that cost half of what an iPad 2 did, and one that’s sold basically at-cost as a way to hook customers on Amazon Prime. Adding insult to injury is the fact that while the Kindle Fire does run Android, Amazon did a huge amount of work to customize the experience and de-emphasize Google’s OS as a brand. Samsung was bogged down by Apple’s lawsuits, the PlayBook turned out to be a ponce, and the Xoom xucked. It’s not clear if there are bad feelings between Google and the various OEMs who bet big money on Android-powered tablets, but the focus during the show is overwhelmingly on Microsoft, Intel, and Windows 8. Most of the demo hardware is x86-based, even though Windows on ARM tablets are supposedly the Next Big Thing — again, you can find them if you look, but there aren’t very many and we’ve seen most of them before. ARM tablets running ICS 4.0 or Jelly Bean 4.2 are even rarer.
This is troubling for several reasons. Microsoft’s numerous ARM restrictions make it clear that the company plans to treat ARM owners like second-class citizens. The company runs the risk of bifurcating the market by creating two de facto Windows standards. x86 devices, be they tablets or notebooks, will be able to install alternate browsers or download applications that aren’t stamped with the MS seal of approval. ARM owners can’t do either. In theory, a strong Android presence in tablets provides an option for customers who aren’t enamored of Microsoft or Apple — but only if manufacturers continue to build around the OS.
Phones: Slow uptake, or business as usual?
The phone situation is markedly different. There’s no danger of Android going anywhere; analyst firms like Gartner expect Android to hold a majority share of the phone market through 2016. What’s more interesting, particularly given the way OEMs have turned away from Android on tablets, is the way Ice Cream Sandwich isn’t gaining traction.
Seven months after release, Ice Cream Sandwich holds just 7.1% of the market. We know from other sources that Android 2.3 (Gingerbraed) had roughly 40% of the market in October 2011, with another 45% still using the older 2.2 (Froyo) at that time. We consulted WayBackMachine for additional data points on how the transition looked earlier in 2011.
In early March 2011, Android 2.2 held 61.3% of the market, with Android 2.3 (Gingerbread) at just 0.7%. By late June, roughly six months after release, 9.2% of phones were running a flavor of Gingerbread. Our last available data point is for July 18, but it shows devices running Android 2.3.3 – 2.3.4 at 17.6% of the market — almost double the previous month’s total. By October, Froyo and Gingerbread were running neck-and-neck.
That’s good news for phone owners impatient for the next round of Google goodies, especially after missing out on Honeycomb, but it points to a major disconnect between when Google delivers OS updates and when carriers actually start shipping them in volume. If ICS hits true to form, we should see a major spike in its usage rates beginning in July or August.
If it doesn’t, other factors may be in play. Google has rolled out updates to Android before, but Ice Cream Sandwich’s debut kicked off a flurry of requests for OS updates and a substantial amount of user unhappiness when phone companies claimed they needed 5-7 months to release an updated OS. Device manufacturers aren’t that used to interacting directly with customers or having to pay attention to their demands; quality issues and phone problems are almost always handled by the carriers long before they get back to Samsung, HTC, or Motorola. Android’s openness works to break down those walls. By de-prioritizing upgrades, carriers can send a message to Google over who’s really in charge of the OS business.
As for tablets, current evidence suggests that Android’s long-term strength may depend on how consumers respond to Windows 8 when it ships out on tablet devices. We’re hoping to see a vibrant community emerge for both devices, if only to keep Microsoft on its toes. For now, most eyes are tracking Redmond, but if Microsoft can’t counter the iPad 3 — and let’s face it, no one has a great track record there — OEMs may start paying more attention to Android again.
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